Waist circumference-years and cancer risk: a prospective study of the association and comparison of predictive performance with waist circumference and body mass index

Menée à partir de données portant sur 10 172 personnes (durée médiane de suivi : 13,7-15,8 ans ; âge moyen : 63 ans), cette étude analyse l'association entre le tour de taille (moyen annuel ou excédant une valeur seuil), l'indice de masse corporelle et le risque de cancer en fonction du sexe

Résumé en anglais

Background: Associations of waist circumferences (WC) and body mass index (BMI) measured once or over time, with cancer incidence were studied. WC is associated with some cancers independent of BMI. Analyses of cumulative central adiposity and cancer are lacking. We investigated associations between waist circumference-years, incorporating exposure time to WC ≥ 102 cm in men or ≥88 cm in women, and cancer, and compared this with single WC or BMI.

Methods: Serial WC measurements taken over 9 years in the prospective Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC) predicted yearly WC. Cox proportional hazards regression estimated hazard ratios (HRs) of cancer incidence for waist circumference-years, WC or BMI, measured in Visit 4. Harrell’s C-statistic quantified metric predictive performances.

Results: 10,172 participants were followed up from Visit 4 for cancer over a median 13.7 for men and 15.8 years for women. For obesity-related cancers, HRs per standard deviation waist circumference-years were 1.14 (95%CI:1.04,1.25) and 1.19 (95%CI:1.12,1.27), respectively. Differences in metric predictive performances were marginal.

Discussion: This is the first study to identify positive associations between waist circumference-years and cancer. Waist circumference-years did not provide additional information on cancer risk beyond that of WC and BMI. BMI is routinely measured in clinic so it may be preferred over WC.