Worldwide trends in cervical cancer incidence and mortality, with predictions for the next 15 years

Menée à partir des données GLOBOCAN 2018, cette étude présente une estimation, pour les 15 prochaines années, de l'incidence mondiale du cancer du col de l'utérus et de la mortalité associée

Résumé en anglais

Background : Cervical cancer is 1 of the most common cancers in females worldwide. Understanding the most recent global patterns and temporal trends of cervical cancer burden might be helpful for its prevention and control.

Methods : Data on cervical cancer (International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, code C53) incidence and mortality in 2018 were extracted from the GLOBOCAN 2018 database and further analyzed for their correlations with the Human Development Index. Temporal trends were analyzed using the annual percent change with joinpoint analysis among 31 countries with highly qualified data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus and World Health Organization mortality databases. Future trends for the next 15 years were predicted using an open-source age-period-cohort model.

Results : Cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates were both negatively correlated with the Human Development Index (r = −0.56 for incidence, r = −0.69 for mortality; P < .001) in cross-sectional analysis, and both remained stable in 12 countries or even decreased in 14 and 18 countries for incidence and mortality, respectively, during the most recent 10 data years. Similar findings were observed for the next 15 years.

Conclusions : Cervical cancer burden was correlated with socioeconomic development. An overwhelming majority of countries had stable or decreasing trends in incidence and mortality rates, especially in those with effective cervical cancer screening programs and human papillomavirus vaccination.