Worldwide trend in human papillomavirus–attributable cancer incidence rates between 1990 and 2012 and Bayesian projection to 2030

Menée à partir de données d'incidence 1990-2012 de la base internationale "CI5plus", cette étude présente une projection de l'évolution de l'incidence des cancers attribuables au papillomavirus humain dans le monde jusqu'en 2030

Résumé en anglais

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of global comparative trend analyses of all human papillomavirus (HPV)–attributable cancers. In addition, most analyses by international sources only describe past trends; few studies have projected the future trend of HPV-attributable cancers.

METHODS: Data were used from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5plus) database that contains annual incidence by cancer site, age, and sex, as well as corresponding populations. Age-standardized HPV-attributable cancer incidence rates were calculated and plotted from 1990 through 2012. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to project the HPV-attributable cancer incidence rates of each country up to 2030.

RESULTS: A significant but small decreasing trend worldwide in the HPV-attributable cancer incidence rate was observed with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of –0.3 (95% CI, –0.6 to –0.1). Notably, Uganda had a consistently increasing trend of HPV-attributable cancer incidence rate, with an AAPC of 1.7 (95% CI, 0.6-2.9). U-shaped trends were observed in some high-income countries because of a recent increase in oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancers. Most countries experience a decreasing or stable trend in HPV-attributable cancers incidence rates between 1990 and 2030. However, Japan, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Italy, Costa Rica, and Uganda will have an increasing trend during the projection period.

CONCLUSIONS: Analyses revealed favorable downward trends in HPV-attributable cancer incidence rates in most of the included countries. However, the persistently increasing trend in HPV-attributable cancer incidence rates in Uganda and the recent increase in oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancer incidence rates in some high-income countries may present a new challenge for global HPV-attributable cancer prevention.

LAY SUMMARY: Analyses revealed favorable downward trends in human papillomavirus (HPV)–attributable cancer incidence rates in most of the included countries. However, the persistently increasing trend in HPV-attributable cancer incidence rates in Uganda and the recent increase in oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancer incidence rates in some high-income countries may present a new challenge for global HPV-attributable cancer prevention.